It is unequivocally true that the ceasefire and shaky calm returning to the north of Israel and south of Lebanon is a good thing. While we hope that it holds past the initial 60 days and sees residents from both the north of Israel and the south of Lebanon able to return to their homes, we must not accept this news as a suitable alternative to a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza, nor should we accept the larger paradigm of rounds of senseless killing and terror as a reality with which to live.
After more than a year of fighting in the north, Israel scored important military gains such as the elimination of Hezbollah leadership, command-and control centres, and the destruction of weapons caches. Further, the psychological impact on Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons, with not only Hezbollah's image of strength severely weakened, but the isolation of the fighting in the north from the fighting in Gaza likely means that both Hezbollah and Iran see this deal as mainly an opportunity to cut their losses and look toward rearming and regrouping in the future.
While we can talk about military gains or successes in the short-term, the picture in its totality emerges far murkier. It's obviously not a win for Israel if/when Hezbollah can rearm/regroup, nor is it beneficial for the people of Lebanon, yet the fighting stopped in the absence of the complete elimination of Hezbollah.
In Gaza, Netanyahu insists on fighting until "total victory" which he describes as the total elimination of Hamas. Since nearly the beginning of the war, countless experts and analysts, including Israeli army and security chiefs have argued that it will be impossible to completely eliminate Hamas. Instead, they say, Hamas can and should be weakened, something which has already largely occurred, at which point diplomatic tools should be used to negotiate an alternative governing body in Gaza and work toward a longer-term vision with the Palestinians of a two-state solution.
Of course, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza are not the same, Hezbollah is a non-state group operating somewhat as a "state within a state" and Hamas is the militant group governing Gaza, but what the calculations of the Israeli government show is that they are able and willing to make concessions and compromises to advance a political outcome.
So what then does that say about their inability to do the same in Gaza? We know from many key figures in Israeli politics and military that there is nothing more to be gained from the fighting in Gaza. Hamas has been substantially weakened, hostages cannot be rescued en masse through military operations, and the loss of life for both Palestinians and Israeli soldiers continues to mount absent any significant victory.
Further, to the extent that we can name wins and accomplishments even if in the short-term on the Israeli side, the fact that Iran and its proxies have bore the brunt of the losses shows that with a day-after strategy that seeks to strengthen alternative leadership to Hamas in the strip, there is no reason that continuing to weaken Hamas and other Iranian proxies couldn't continue in tandem, thus weakening extremist forces through both diplomacy and targeted military action.
The only conclusion one can come to then is that the messianic right-wing in Israel's government is prolonging the war not for the destruction of Hamas or return of the hostages, but the destruction of Gaza and indeed, the Palestinian people who live there.
We already saw Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich defend resettlement in Gaza and the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians, Israeli public broadcaster Kann aired a documentary following the settlers who are planning to resettle the north of Gaza with Jewish settlements, and yesterday, Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf took a tour of the Gaza border, holding a map showing where and how Jewish settlements would be constructed.
It is an absolute offense to the senses to believe that Jewish leaders are not only okay with, but are actively promoting the mass killing of innocents, the sacrificed lives of hundreds of young Israeli soldiers, and the abandonment of the hostages in exchange for messianic visions of a Greater Israel and indeed, it feels cataclysmic to make such a claim.
But there is simply nothing about the actions of this Israeli government that can negate this argument, and following the ceasefire with Lebanon, it's clearer than ever that a hostage release and ceasefire deal could be reached if this government wanted it, but that is not their true goal or intention.
Goldknopf and other extreme right-wing messianic political leaders in Israel no doubt believe they are doing what is best for Israel and best for the Jewish people. So one then has to wonder, when their settlements are built, how will they sleep at night, knowing they're lying atop the bodies of the hostages?