Netanyahu's visit to DC, the upcoming Israeli elections, and reflections from Israel.

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Transcript:

Maytal Kowalski 

Hey Jon!

Jon Allen 

Hi Maytal. Welcome back from Israel. Looking forward to hearing what you saw and heard.

Maytal Kowalski 

Yes, I'm I'm I'm I'm tanned and somewhat sunburnt, so that's how you know that I was actually there. But let's yeah, I want to share that with you. I want to talk about it. It was a great trip. I was there for two weeks. I finally managed to get an appointment to get my passport is really passport renewed, so I was productive. But before we talk about that and do some kind of like more granular reflections onto that specific experience, we last spoke before I was away two weeks ago, and of course things are always happening and shifting and changing. So maybe we'll start with kind of like the zoom out of the bigger picture and work our way into those smaller issues. And I wanted to start by talking to you about Netanyahu's visit to D.C. which was announced just, I think, end of last week or on the weekend, and he's going to be attending Senator Lindsey Graham's funeral and meeting with Trump. It seems is going to be meeting with Trump briefly, and we know that there's. It seems as though there is some daylight between the two of them vis-a-vis Iran, and kind of what they want is their next step. So, can you unpack for us the visit to D.C. and then where there may be some disagreements between what Trump is looking for to do next and what Netanyahu is looking for next?

Jon Allen 

Sure. Well, Bibi, as you said, is in Washington as we speak, and my understanding is the meeting has taken place. The president has a busy day because he's also meeting with Zelensky today. There is not much by way of readout of the meeting, except that both sides said it. They were going to discuss, of course, Iran and Lebanon, and that's more or less what they said they were going to talk about. Very little by way of what they did talk about and what the outcomes were, but the backdrop to this meeting, other than the fact that the prime minister is attending Lindsey Graham's funeral, Lindsey Graham being one of the most stalwart supporters of Israel in Congress in the Senate, the backdrop is the elections coming up in Israel on October 27. The date's been set, and of course the midterms and the fact that up until the war in Iran, I would say the Prime Minister Netanyahu was very much looking forward to Donald Trump's support in his campaign to be reelected, and since the war in Iran and the various comments by Donald Trump to the effect that Bibi will do whatever he wants him to do, J.D. Vance's comments that frankly the United States is the only powerful friend that Israel has in the world, Marco Rubio, suggesting that Israel, in effect, pushed the Americans into the war. Given all that, it's not at all clear that Donald Trump is going to be much help for Bibi in the elections. There was previous talk that he would actually come to Israel and campaign for the prime minister, but it's not clear that that would be helpful or that he wants to do it. So that's the backdrop. Of course, the prime minister definitely wanted to talk about Iran. He was not happy about the initial ceasefire deal that was negotiated, or the terms that were to follow once the 30 to 60 days had ended. He wasn't happy about the fact that it didn't include ballistic missiles, that it didn't include proxies, and he wasn't even happy with the nuclear aspects that were talked about as being included in the deal. I think the president has made clear that if he is going to continue the fight against Iran, he'd prefer to do it alone, unless it got really serious, and he decided he needed and wanted Israeli help. But so far, I think he he wants to keep control, full control of the conflict, as we know. There are some signs that talks could begin again. Both sides are now refraining from doing any firing, and undoubtedly there was a conversation about that between them. Also, a conversation about Lebanon. Undoubtedly, the Americans have been putting pressure on Israel to begin to withdraw from southern Lebanon, they have three quote pilot projects where the Lebanese army is supposed to come in and disarm Hezbollah and and basically take over from the IDF pilot projects that would hopefully turn into something bigger and a more fulsome withdrawal, and then of course there's the the I think it's quite exciting news that the Syrian president is now interested in holding peace talks with Israel. There's some indication that Israel will withdraw from the territory that they occupied right after the Assad regime was overthrown, and so you've got the possibility of some talks with Syria, some talks with President Aoun of of Lebanon, if if there was a government in Israel that was keen to pursue this, they could be turning tactical advances against Hezbollah and against other proxies into strategic wins. It's not clear that the current coalition is actually interested in pursuing that, but we'll have to see, and we'll have to see whether if another coalition wins in in October, they're interested in pursuing that. I think the other things that might be on the agenda that should be on the agenda between the prime minister and the president are the West Bank and Gaza. I guess turning first to the to Gaza, there are some conflicting reports about what's happening. On the one hand, Israel is advancing and taking over more of Gaza. On the other hand, there has been talk about the technical committee, which currently is sitting in Egypt and waiting to come in to begin to plan and implement some reconstruction in Gaza. Initially, Israel was preventing it from coming in.

Jon Allen 

Now it seems that the technical committee is saying that it won't come in until Israel has withdrawn, and Israel is saying it's not withdrawing until Hamas disarms, and that process has not begun. Hamas has allegedly stopped governing in the part of Gaza that it had controlled. Not sure what that means on a day-to-day basis, but that was supposed to lay the groundwork for the technical committee to come in. The other factor is that Israel is not allowing the Palestinian Authority to come in, which was part of the Board of Peace plan, and that has been obviously delayed. And so Gaza continues to be problematic. There is a humanitarian crisis. Over 1000 Palestinians have been killed, and there's not much progress, unfortunately, going on there. In the West Bank, we've had last weekend probably the, in many ways, the worst violence in the last year, provoked by settlers once again, that attacked a village. As a result, two Israeli soldiers were killed. Four Palestinians were killed, but that then led to a rampage by settlers, by the IDF coming in, arresting Palestinians mostly, and two settlers I understand, and essentially the IDF raiding refugee camps and and other settlement Palestinian settlements there. So the situation in the West Bank is really quite out of control. The IDF has said, leaking to various media, that they are unable to control the situation with the settlers. There's evidence that in many cases they're unwilling to. Control the situation, and and it's the the IDF has been forced to move troops from other parts of of Israel and and other fronts into the West Bank, which is eerily something that we saw at the time of October seven, when troops were moved from the Gaza border to the West Bank in order to quell the situation there. So, all in all, it's a it's a very unstable, difficult backdrop for Israelis that are living and watching. It's not clear how much they're observing what's happening in the West Bank and in Gaza, but they're they're certainly concerned about what's going on in Lebanon and and Iran. So we'll we'll see what happens. The polling which we can talk about is showing that the Netanyahu coalition remains short of victory of the 61 seats, but so does the opposition coalition, and they will need the Arab-Israeli vote in order to cross the line there.

Maytal Kowalski 

Yeah, so, so yeah, I wasn't wrong. There's a lot going on as per usual. Thank you for for all of that and for kind of touching on all of those different areas. And like, let me just ask you about that as well. Like, I do think that one of the things with the upcoming elections, is that while we can look at you know front runner Gadi Eisenkot, and I would probably get guess that neither you nor I feel that he is our most most aligned political ally, but I do think that there is an understanding amongst all opposition parties now that this kind of continued isolation from the international community and the U.S. and these actions that are taking place that that as you mentioned earlier, like Trump, you know, is disagreeing with Netanyahu on that if they are able to form, if they are able to form government in in whatever form that looks like after after the elections on october 27, there is going to have to be some reshaping and rehabilitation of the U.S. Israel relationship. And so I'm curious, from your point of view, let's say that that happens because I don't want to imagine a world where it doesn't happen, or let's only cross that bridge when we come to it. But you know, if we are looking at some sort of you know coalition that includes Eisenkot, but also includes Yair Golan from the from the Democrats and maybe Bennett and Lapid and you know, kind of these opposition leaders that we know. Where do you think? First of all, let's let's think a little bit about what's happened up until now with the U.S.-Israel relationship, and then where are the places where they'll probably start first in terms of mending that or repairing that? Because I I can't imagine that this kind of super Sparta isolationism that Bibi is pushing is something that any of these potential future leaders want to continue with.

Jon Allen 

Yeah, thanks for that. I think we have to separate out two different things with the potential opposition government. One is what is happening within Israel. I think all of the threats to democracy, attacks on the press, attacks on the judiciary, the four pieces of legislation that they just passed. I think within Israel there will be a repositioning, a very significant repositioning Of democracy, let's put it that way, and and I think that will be positive, and I think that can actually help the relationship between Israel and the United States and Europe, etc. where where the the whole question of values was being questioned, and whether or not we were dealing with a populist Orban Trump-like government, or whether we were back to sort of a more liberal democratic government within Israel, and then you've got the without outside of Israel, and the backdrop, as you hinted, there is the declining popularity of Israel amongst Americans, whether it's Democrats or Republicans, especially amongst 18 to 45 year olds, including, of course, amongst young. Jews and the the reputation of Israel and its actions in the West Bank and in Gaza previously and and continuing have had a major effect on Israel's popularity. I don't have to go into the numbers, but you know, over 60% of Americans now sympathize with the Palestinians over Israel. I mean, that's a 40, at least a 40-point switch in in the last five years, and and it goes on and on. Yeah. So I agree with you. I think I think a a new coalition would make a much more serious effort to stop the violence in the West Bank. I am. It's quite clear that there will not be a quick move to reaching out to the Palestinians in terms of self-determination, a peace deal, negotiations. That's not going to happen. Eisenkot recently gave an interview in which he he dismissed that as a possibility, claiming that anybody that thinks that that's going to happen, he didn't say quickly. I hope he means quickly or in the in the short to medium term doesn't understand the conflict, but certainly everything that Bennett has said, and to some extent Lapide recently, suggests that we're not going to see peace, but we we certainly will hopefully see a much more reasonable attitude to what is happening in the West Bank, and hopefully in Gaza, and hopefully they see that the interests of Israelis and the interests of Israel's relationship with Europe, with the United States, with Canada depends on a much more reasonable approach to the West Bank and to Gaza and to Lebanon and Syria, frankly, and I would hope and I would think, as you suggest, that the these new leaders Eisenkot, Bennett, Lapid, even Lieberman, would want to move in that direction, both for Israel's sake and in terms of repairing the relationships with the Americans in Europe and Canada, et cetera.

Maytal Kowalski 

Yeah, I mean, you know, it was interesting. It was interesting for me being there, and and as as I think you know, and and to share with others for folks who don't know, I was there for two weeks. I spent a week in Jerusalem at the Shalom Hartman Institute, and then I spent a week in Tel Aviv. And you know, different reflections from from both. But what I can say is, so we actually had a session at Shalom Hartman with someone, a politician who's on Eisenkot's list. I think she's like probably in the in the top 10 of the list. So likely will have a seat in Knesset if you know if if if it goes according to what the polls are saying. But you know I thought it was like interesting and that really didn't land with a diaspora audience. And this is where this like real schism exists. Is that she also kind of said that thing of like, and we're hearing it from from all the opposition leaders of, well, we're not going to see a Palestinian state in the next 10 years, or we can't think that you know after october 7, we can't think that there's going to be a Palestinian state. And my my pushback to that is kind of like, but if we agree that we want to get to the two, fine, maybe not 10 years from now. Like I mean, I think tomorrow, but like let's pretend that I'm I'm I'm with them on their initial argument. Fine, not 10 years from now. Can you not think of any steps that you can take between now and sitting down to negotiate that would make the situation better? I mean, arresting violent settlers and actually have them having them be accountable for their actions and and you know dismantling outposts. I think after this last attack, where as you mentioned, two Israeli soldiers were tragically killed along with four Palestinians tragically killed. You know, four new outposts went four illegal illegal under Israeli law. Four new outposts went up as kind of like a revenge tactic, right? Like those things can be stopped right now, and maybe it's. I try to say that maybe it's political posturing and pragmatism that they're talking about the long term to placate an Israeli electorate to say, "Don't worry, this isn't going to happen for 10 years, but behind the scenes, they know that they'll take some of these like intermediary steps, but but but we're not hearing it, and and I find that you know I mean look they're campaigning in Israel for the Israeli public, but it's very clear that this schism that you're talking about in terms of where. I asked for a juice that, in relation to how we feel about Israel and where Israelis are sitting, I mean, it feels it feels so far apart right right now, and it and it feels like both sides are so unable to communicate to one another why they think the way they do. I agree with you, and I really do hope some of it is political electioneering posturing, that that the opposition feels that

Jon Allen 

Bibi Netanyahu and others would take full advantage of any suggestions that the new coalition was going to start talking to the Palestinians about peace. They know, and we know that Israelis are simply not there, and and and and whatever we in the diaspora want and think, it's quite clear that while I would say probably a majority of Israelis are not happy with the the settlement activity that's been going on, the settler activity that's been going on. They hear very little about it, they see very little, and it really doesn't affect them. They don't know what's going on in Gaza at all, but they certainly remember the rockets from Hezbollah. They remember October seven, and and they know how many young IDF soldiers were killed in Gaza, in Lebanon, etc. So they're in, they are in no mood, and in that sense, these politicians are reflecting Israelis as as unfortunate that we see it. Unfortunate in the sense that we seem to agree with Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak and the Commanders for Israeli Security who say yes, we agree, but the answer is not more violence. The answer is is beginning the process, giving the Palestinian Authority its tax money back. Stop increasing settlements. Begin, as you say, get rid of the illegal outposts at Israeli law. Completely turn around the policies of Ben Gvir, Smotrich, and Katz, the Minister of Defense. These things can be done. Maybe they can't be talked about right now, but it will be a real test. And of course, I think Europe and the United and the Democrats in the United States and Canada, will be looking at the new government. They'll give it time, of course, and they should give it time. But they'll be looking to see some dramatic changes in that regard.

Maytal Kowalski 

So, look, I mean, I agree with you. I do think, though, and this is like one of the other kind of big thoughts that I kept having and kept going back to and kept hearing when I was there too, is like that is true, and I keep hearing that said over and over again that like that's just not where Israelis are at right now. You know, we have to remember too that like so much of where people are at or aren't at comes from their leaders and what they hear from their leaders, and also I think comes from like the media and what they see, kind of you know, on on TV and on the news. And like I speak Hebrew fluently, so I watch Israeli news when I'm there. And like I think it would really like shock people the way that the stuff that they talk about there versus you know the stuff that's important to them there that they're talking about on a day to day basis versus here, you're right. Like they're not hearing about Gaza, they're not hearing about the West Bank. The West Bank a little bit more, especially this weekend. But but still, you know, that's that's a pretty recent development. And so there is a way different kind of outlook. But you know, I had this thing happen to me, and again, this is like an anecdote of one person, but I think it is really-I think it's reflective. I think we'd hear it from more people, and it kind of made me sad because I was kind of in an argument with an Israeli who considers himself, like I guess, a center-leftist for for Israel, and we were talking about you know the work of J Space Canada and what we advocate for, and the occupation, and you know all the different things that we talk about.

Maytal Kowalski 

exactly to your point, like I was shocked. I mean, I'm not shocked anymore, but I guess we should continue to be shocked that like we in the diaspora oftentimes know a lot more about what's happening. You know, he was asking me a lot of questions of like, wait, does the are there still clear rules about area A, B, and C, and like where exactly does the IDF operate? And it's like, you kind of realize these are the things that we take for granted that we talk about all the time. That he was like he kind of knew that there was something there and there was some rule, but what was it exactly? And then you know one of the things that I said is look if you. Want to argue that a military occupation needs to continue to exist at least even for a temporary time, though it's been almost 60 years. Fine, but but why are there settlements there, and why are there why is there is expansion of settlements and the settler violence, et cetera, et cetera? And he said to me, he said this thing is really interesting where he said, "I think I agree with you, but I don't know what the option is." And I thought, isn't that tragic that we're kind of like condescending to and pandering to Israelis, all political leaders, and saying they're not ready for this conversation, not ready to talk about this. This isn't where they're at. That the basically the entire public, even those who identify themselves as being on the left, have no political imagination anymore of anything other than just living forever by the sword. And you know, when I said, "Fine, so keep a military occupation, but arrest violent settlers and hold them accountable for what's happening, and don't allow for more settlement expansion, and halt e1 is like you know. And this is someone who says like, yeah, I think the settlements are bad, and I think that those violent settlers are crazy. It's like here are all the things that you can do that are intermediary steps. It was like, okay, we could do those things. And like again, a one-on-one conversation is a lot different than being spoken to by a politician and knowing that you're going to get backlash as a politician when you speak, but I think there's a reality where, like, when we don't talk about these things or no political leader talks about these things, it's not just that those things are then very hard to put into practice and to make policy, but also that you make an entire population scared and frightened and feeling like they have no option, and I just feel like for a state that's supposed to offer us safety and security and sovereignty and you know create this kind of dawn of the new Jew who's strong and has and and you know has agency and in their ancestral homeland, it's a real it's a real disservice, and that was my, you know, that was for me kind of a a big reflection. That just seeing that people are scared, I think, kind of unnecessarily, and that there that there needs to be some political leadership that is convincing enough to tell people that there is another way. I think is, I think is is something that if it doesn't happen before the elections, I really hope we see it after the elections because it's a bad way. It's a bad way to continue to live.

Jon Allen 

I I'll make just make three points in complete agreement with what you're saying. I was on a a NIF a New Israel Fund webinar years ago, in which the NIF representative, in response to some questions, said at one point that she had 12-year-old twins. She lived in Haifa. Their kids were going to a regular school, and apart from her two kids, nobody in the class had ever heard of the occupation; they didn't know it existed. Secondly, secondly, I think it's. I think your point about leadership is so right on. I mean, and and Rabin is the perfect example, and not just Rabin. I mean, there were Likud leaders that made peace, yeah. And and leadership can really change the game, both on the Palestinian side. Let's let's not forget. I mean, eliminating Hamas, getting a real election for the Palestinian Authority, but certainly after 19 years of Bibi Netanyahu basically instilling fear, I couldn't agree with you more. And and finally, I think the thing that that Israelis completely miss is the absolute horrible situation that the Palestinians are living under, the indignity, the violence, the poverty, the the daily checkpoints if they can even cross. I mean, the Israelis simply don't understand. They don't know, and and I, if they did know, then I I think they would change. But there's there's no opportunity for them to understand it because, as we know, there's a few number, relatively few number that are reading Haaretz every day, and even those that are reading Haaretz, they're they're they're traumatized still, and that's going to have to change. And and you know, that first of all, we need an opposition coalition to win, and then we. Need them to have some guts to begin making the changes and and redirecting the rhetoric.

Maytal Kowalski 

Yeah, yeah. You know, I'll just I'll just kind of say as a final, I think final reflection. I think that that's true of diaspora Jews as well. I think that there's you know diaspora Jews can far more easily go in certain situations, go to the West Bank, especially Area A, and see kind of you know what the situation is on the ground. And another reflection that I would say, like from Shalom Hartman in speaking to diaspora Jewry, is like they know you know in kind of a more I'm generalizing, but let's say the more mainstream world is like they know that there's talk about stuff that's happening in the West Bank, and they know vaguely that like settler violence is bad. But to your point, like no one's going and seeing it. And sometimes I think that like there is a realization that if you go and see it, you have to confront it. The fact that there's a wall serves not only to create some sort of barrier to entry, but to create a real othering of the other side and make it so that it's just kind of it's a thing that you don't see every day and you don't know about every day, so it's very hard to imagine what it is. And then you know I've had the experience a couple times where I've attempted to go into the West Bank where the IDF then shows up and says sorry it's a closed military zone. First of all, we know it's not a closed military zone, but also, what's the strategy and what's the impact of doing that? Is that people like you know they're trying to make it so people can't see because once you see it, it really is indefensible. And I'll just add that you know another thing that I thought was really interesting at Shalom Hartman is we actually had one of the educators speak to us about yes, American like young American Jews, but they did some qualitative research on young American Jews who define themselves as either non-Zionist or anti-Zionist, and probably unsurprisingly, the majority of them, the reason, the way that they came to those opinions is they say it was a trip to the occupied West Bank and seeing it with their own eyes. I think that we need to then talk about how we keep a connection to Israel and and hopefully a Zionist identity or or some sort of connection to a future Zionist identity. But we do have to recognize that like burying our heads in the sand and closing our eyes to what's happening in the West Bank and not seeing it is-it's-it might make us feel better in the short term, but it's-it's not helping anyone. So, so that's my plug to anyone listening to say next time you're there, there are many tours and groups that can take you to see it, and we'd be happy to recommend some of those to you. And I think people should really should really see it with their own eyes. Exactly to your point, it's-it's hard to it's hard to unsee once you've seen it,

Jon Allen 

and don't become anti-Israeli as a result. Just become pro-peace

Maytal Kowalski 

and anti-occupation.

Jon Allen 

Yeah,

Maytal Kowalski 

yeah, yeah, yeah. But yeah, I mean, so look, this has kind of felt like maybe we've maybe we've also talked about some potential long-term solutions or areas of hope, which I always like when we can figure out a way amongst it all to end on that note, which I think we're we're oftentimes able to do. I, as always, appreciate all of your insights. I am sad to be home, but I'm happy to be home, and especially happy to be chatting with you once again. And we'll talk. I think probably again in a couple weeks.

Jon Allen 

Look forward to it, and and hope we can see some progress on many fronts, including some good continuing poll numbers.

Maytal Kowalski 

That's right. Okay. Thanks so much, Jon. Have a great rest of your day.

Jon Allen 

Take care.

Maytal Kowalski 

Bye.